Blue hydrogen market seen surging to 7.89 million tons by 2031

Mordor Intelligence projects the global blue hydrogen market will jump from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031, a 57.64% CAGR. The firm points to Asia-Pacific demand, carbon capture investment and blue ammonia trade routes as key drivers, while high costs and gas prices remain obstacles.

Why it matters: - Blue hydrogen is moving from a niche decarbonization option toward a larger industrial fuel and feedstock market. - Mordor Intelligence projects global volume growth from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031. - The forecast implies expanding demand for carbon capture, hydrogen transport, ammonia infrastructure and low-carbon industrial inputs.

What happened: - Mordor Intelligence said the global blue hydrogen market will grow at a 57.64% CAGR between 2026 and 2031. - The market is expected to reach 7.89 million tons by 2031. - Asia-Pacific is emerging as the fastest-growing regional demand center. - The report links growth to blue ammonia supply agreements with Japan and South Korea. - Mordor Intelligence published the market report with additional detail at the full report.

The details: - Investments in autothermal reforming plants with carbon capture are supporting project development. - The US IRA 45V tax credit and European regulations are helping improve project economics. - Shared carbon capture and storage infrastructure in the US Gulf Coast, North Sea and Alberta is reducing costs. - Saudi Arabia’s blue ammonia exports to Japan have highlighted ammonia’s role as a hydrogen carrier over long distances. - South Korea is investing in ammonia-cracking infrastructure to build regional supply chains. - Chemical producers are adopting blue hydrogen as a lower-carbon feedstock for ammonia and methanol. - Fertilizer manufacturing and marine fuel production are also becoming target uses. - Carbon capture incentives and demand for certified low-carbon products are encouraging long-term supply agreements. - Carbon capture raises energy use, feedstock consumption and operating costs. - Autothermal reforming can improve efficiency, but oxygen supply infrastructure adds expense. - High natural gas prices in Europe are pressuring economics. - Hydrogen pyrolysis remains early-stage and is not yet a near-term substitute. - The report segments the market by technology, end-user industry and geography. - Technology segments include steam methane reforming plus CCS, autothermal reforming plus CCS, gas partial oxidation plus CCS, natural gas pyrolysis or NGD, and integrated SMR-ATR hybrid. - End-user segments include refining, chemicals, iron and steel, transportation, and other industries such as cement, glass and food. - Geographic segments include Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, South America, and the Middle East and Africa.

Between the lines: - The market outlook suggests blue hydrogen is gaining traction where buyers need lower-carbon molecules but cannot rely fully on renewable electricity. - The strongest near-term opportunity appears to be in ammonia-linked trade and industrial feedstocks, not broad power generation. - Europe’s policy support is not enough on its own to offset cost pressures from gas and storage constraints. - Asia-Pacific’s role reflects a practical supply-chain strategy: produce or import hydrogen derivatives where direct hydrogen transport is harder.

What's next: - Asia-Pacific demand is likely to keep rising as Japan and South Korea expand import and cracking infrastructure. - China, India and other regional markets are expected to add more production and storage projects. - The report says the United Kingdom, Germany and other European countries are advancing selected projects. - Saudi Arabia and Brazil are exploring export opportunities for blue hydrogen and ammonia. - Northeast Asia is emerging as a likely destination for those exports. - Recent project milestones include Aramco’s March 2025 acquisition of a 50% stake in Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gases Company in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. - In August 2026, CF Industries, JERA and Mitsui broke ground on the Blue Point One project in Louisiana with about $3.7 billion of investment. - The Louisiana plant is expected to use autothermal reforming, produce hydrogen for low-carbon ammonia, store captured CO₂ permanently and begin operations in 2029.

The bottom line: - Blue hydrogen is scaling fastest where carbon capture, ammonia logistics and industrial demand overlap, but cost and gas-price risks still limit how far and how quickly the market can expand.